In this series of commentaries, I am highlighting the pitfalls of rational thinking in our world today.

 Rational Thinking < Political Reality

  Closer to Autocracy Than You Might Think

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In this series of commentaries, I am highlighting the pitfalls of rational thinking in our world today. Rational thinkers often underestimate how irrational the world can be.  Using logic and reason is a good thing, but it can be limiting.  Sometimes we wind upbuilding logic boxes for ourselves.  It’s a terribly overused cliché, but here goes – we need to start thinking outside of the box. (Sorry about that one).

This series of commentaries tries to paint a picture of the world as it actually is, rather than how it should be.  The first commentary (here) is quiet light and entertaining.  It argues that shared beliefs dominate and overwhelms intellectual discourse.  The second commentary (here) argues that our commonly held view of history is mostly the storyline that we prefer.

This commentary first makes the case that western democracies are not as highly valued by the public as the rational thinker would like to think.  Secondly, I argue that our democracies are not as free as we think and finally, I make the case that we may be closer to autocracy than a logical person might think.

Everybody Loves Democracy, Right?

Most people living in modern western democracies think that democracy is the best or the most evolved system of governance for civilization.  They tell themselves that mankind (in the democratic west) is presently at its most sophisticated in terms of governance, while there may be improvements in the future, there will be no going back to previous autocratic forms of governance.    Unfortunately, this is not true.

The Salient Lessons from History

History teaches us that societies can  swing from autocracies (Kings / Dictators) to democracies and then backwards from democracies all the way back to dictatorships.  There are too many examples of democracies changing to dictatorships to list, but Spain, Portugal, Germany, Italy, Greece, Brazil, and Argentina spring to mind.  And that is only in the last 200 years.  It appears as though all forms of governance have a limited shelf-life.  Furthermore, dictatorships and ‘pure’ democracies appear to be at the extreme end of a continuum.  Oligarchies, (a ruling elite), are somewhere in the middle and are the most frequently occurring in societies.  A popular moniker for oligarchy today is Deep State.  

All governance systems are prone to collapse, they generally grow old and decay.  Corruption and bloated bureaucracies chip away at the foundations of all states and kingdoms.  Governments grow so large that there are not enough outsiders to pay for the privileges of the burgeoning insiders.  Democracy has no more cures for these ills than any other form of governance.  

 Public Attitude to Democracy

People are not particularly loyal to a system of governance.  The truth is many people in the west have at best a mediocre understanding of how their respective democratic systems work.  For example, it can be argued that the Republic of Ireland is inherently more democratic than Britain.  In our forthcoming election the electoral system ensures that all seats in Dáil Éireann (lower house) will be competitive races.  If the Irish Green Party earns 20% of the vote nationwide it is likely that they will gain about 20%of the seats.  In this year’s British general election, the Labour party won 34% of the vote nationwide.  However, the electoral system awarded Labour 63% of the seats in the House of Commons (lower house).  This is not a very ‘democratic’ outcome.  Furthermore, when you consider that the House of Lords (British upper house) is totally unelected, Britain does not appear very democratic at all.  But all of this does not really matter much to the average Briton.  And why should it? Are the British people any better or worse off for their version of democracy?  Are the Irish faring any better with their version of ultra democracy?  Answers to these questions will come from political nerds, not the average citizen.  And that is the point – the average citizen doesn’t really know or care!

Show Me The Money

Frankly, many people care more about their economic well-being and prospects.  They will take and accept any political system that delivers for them personally.  Many people move from democratic countries to Principalities / Kingdoms / Dictatorships for economic advancement and willingly endure less ‘democratic style freedoms’.  They are not forced to do so.  Architects, engineers, bankers, and teachers etc have many career options in the ‘freedom lovin’ west. Western Expats (including women) will work in a country where native women are second class citizens.  These expats may even boss about low skill migrants (expats) from poorer countries that are treated like indentured labour on behalf of their new ‘host country’ bosses.

 It is often posited then that the best form of governance is that which raises the general standard of living. A quick glance at data from worldometers reveals that a country’s wealth may not be primarily influenced by its governance system.  Natural resources can play a more important role in the wealth of a nation.  Resource rich nations Norway and Qatar are tied at $144k GDP per capita.  Lower down the scale resource rich nations Canada and Saudi Arabia are tied at about $59k per capita GDP.

Sticking with the GDP per capita metric, we might say that China’s non-democratic system, (at $21k per capita GDP), is superior to India’s democracy ($8k).  An Indian citizen might gladly accept a less democratic system for a bump up in wages.

Democracies should, in theory at least, offer the greatest economic opportunities for people.  But economic opportunities usually entail some element of risk and therefore the chance of loss.  Not everybody wants this.  The reality is that many people (rich and poor) living in democracies prefer the comfort of state care to the burden of responsibility that goes with economic independence.  Populations in the ‘freedom loving’ west gave up their freedoms during Covid Hysteria not just out of fear.  They did it because the price was right.  Governments smartly offered financial inducements to the big (and influential) corporations and individual citizens.

Just like expats, stay at home citizens might willingly trade their rights and freedoms in the home country for a few dollars more.  Humans are malleable and resourceful creatures.  You won’t find any political system specified in Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs.  Perhaps we can argue that people don’t rate democracy and the freedoms that go with it as highly as we’d like them to.  

Modern Western Democracies Are Free. Really?

_{“Freedom, oh freedom. That’s just some people talking”}

Desperado– The Eagles 1973

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The modern freedom loving west is not free by any ordinary, normal or sane measures.  In 1973 people were every bit as sensible and intelligent as we are today.  If, in 1973, you told people how large a role the government would be playing in their lives in the future, imagine the reaction that you would get.  To them you would be describing a dystopian world.  If in 1973, you told a rational thinking American that they would be frisked and have their bags searched very time they fly in 2024 they would be aghast.  If you told a rational thinking Briton in 1973 that he would be surveilled by 1 million CCTV cameras in London in 2024 he would say – politically impossible!  If, in 1973, you told rational thinkers in the freedom loving west, that in 2024,the government would have the electronic ability to view over 80% of the publics transactions, they might find it difficult to imagine that you are talking about a free democratic society. I could go on and on.

Changing Our Way Of Life To Preserve Our Way Of Life.

It appears that a steady dosage of propaganda over a long enough period of time will sway most freedom loving people to give up their freedoms.  The propaganda message is always that we must accept these small inconveniences and changes to our life to preserve our ‘freedom loving’ way of life.

From Modern Western Democracy To Autocracy

It is the natural order of nature and indeed human nature to evolve to a critical state.  Human governance systems burnout and collapse. The final crash is usually caused by a combination of internal rot and external pressure.  As the communist system in Russia collapsed so can western democratic systems collapse.  Remember Russia did not disappear down the human sink hole of history.  It’s system of governance did.  Likewise, Texas, Ireland, Germany, the USA or EU won’t disappear.  But they can change their governance systems and even a few boundaries / jurisdictions. Nothing is forever!

This commentary simply states that the move from democracy to autocracy is possible.  Some may argue that it is not as simple as this.  They may argue that many democracies around the world have strong constitutions that protect individual rights etc.  If I were playing poker I would say to an American,  I’ll take your constitution and raise it by the Patriot Act.  To a French citizen I would say, I’ll take your constitution and raise it with, ‘it is illegal to spend more than €1,000 cash on one item in France’.  To my fellow countrymen I would say I’ll take your fancy Bunreacht na hÉireann (Irish constitution) and raise it by our forthcoming hate speech bill.  

When reality bites, constitutions are not worth the paper they are written on.  Rational thinkers sometimes fail to see constitutions for what they really are.  Flowery language spouting ideals that cannot and will not be enforced when it really matters.

If A Country Has The Military Heft, All It Needs Is A Crisis.

It is exceedingly difficult to convert from a democracy to a dictatorship without a large and high-profile military.  For example, the Irish military is neither large nor high profile.  If the Irish head of military, General Seán Clancy, appeared on our media to proclaim that the Irish military would be taking over the country, he would not be taken seriously.  He is not famous and Ireland’s defence forces do not feature very much in Irish public life.  It is hardly credible that such a thing could happen in Ireland no matter how bad the political, economic and or social crisis could be.

In other countries high ranking members of the military do feature rather prominently in public life.  And in the right set of circumstances a widely known and respected military chief could step up to the microphone to put a steadying hand on the tiller in the case of a chaotic social, economic and political mess.  A takeover would always be presented as a temporary little arrangement.  And there is every possibility that it would be widely accepted.

Ukraine and Israel may have the right combination of military size and widely known military commanders for a move to autocracy.  They certainly are in crisis mode.  The USA is not in crisis mode (yet?), but its military is very well respected and popular.

Conclusion

Hopefully the reader will note that this commentary has made no predictions.  Many rational thinkers fall into the trap of thinking that democracy is the preferred option because it is THE best system.  What they may fail to understand is that many people in their own country really don’t think about things that way. And if democracy means majority rule and a majority chooses totalitarianism then rational thinkers will find themselves living in a new political system.  The resulting move away from democracy may be irrational, but it could be a political reality.  

As noted earlier, usually the move to autocracy can only be completed with a large and popular military. Where does your country stand?

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